The mini-budget or MTBPS

Yesterday Minister Gordhan presented the so-called mini-budget in Parliament and today the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement or #MTBPS is trending on Twitter. I still want to write up something on the industrial policy ideas that are floating out there in policy circles and the media, but for now here is a quick word could on the MTBPS and a link to a Storify story.

Om te meet is om te weet

Donderdagaand het ons ʼn paar sensus-opnemers hier is die straat gesien en Hanlie het besluit om nie te wag om getel te word nie, maar om sommer aan te meld. Ons het uitgevra oor die opnemers, die ure, die ontvangkilheid van mense en sommer daar in sterk skemer op hulle bakkie se seil die vorm voltooi. Dit het my opnuut laat dink aan die duisterhede van data en navorsing.

Vir navorsing oor ekonomiese geografie is die sensus onontbeerlik. Mense en ekonomiese aktiwiteite koek saam op plekke en die sensus is een van die min opnames wat mens ʼn idee kan gee van wat in die hele land aangaan. Dit gaan dan ook oor baie meer as om net die bevolking te tel. Navorsers wil weet waar trek hoogsgeskoolde mense saam, want hulle is van die dryfvere van ekonomiese groei. Beleidmakers moet weet wat die aard van plaaslike armoede is. In Ekonomie leer ons vir die eerstejaars dat dit groot vrae wat ons wil beantwoord is WAT, HOE en VIR WIE om te produseer, maar WAAR dit alles gebeur is ook van belang. Wanneer die resultate beskikbaar is sien ek uit om ondersoek in te stel in watter dorpe en stede die ekonomiese geleenthede en uitdagings is en hoe dit sedert die 2001 sensus verander het.

Om deel te wees van die proses wys egter ook die beperkinge van opnames en data wat ons wil gebruik om ingewikkelde vrae te antwoord. Mense twiet met verbasing dat hulle baie ernstig gevra word in watter bevolkingsgroep hulle hulself sal klassifiseer! Dit is dalk vir jou voor die handliggend, maar dit is juis daar sodat jou stem gehoor word en nie die opnemer se opinie nie. Hanlie vertel dat ʼn tannie in ons blok die volgende oggend luidkeels moeilik was met die opnemers oor hoekom hulle wil weet of sy ʼn yskas, stofsuier ensovoorts in die huis het – tannies julle maak navorsers se lewe moeilik met al daardie oop spasies in Excel!

My punt is dus dat ons almal vinnig kla oor die gehalte van die navorsing en beleid wat moet help om uitdagings soos werkloosheid, armoede en swak dienslewering aan te spreek, maar wanneer daar kans is om ʼn inset te maak is jy bang dit vat dalk tyd. Maak eerder navorsers se harte bly en doen jou beste om deel te wees van Sensus 2011. Volg hulle sommer ook op Twitter: @StatsSA en @Census2011SA

Some thoughts on the NPC Jam

This week saw the National Planning Commission's NPC Jam and I enjoyed it a lot. The Jam was a large online forum, a policy consultation and crowd-sourcing effort towards a vision for South Africa in 2030. It is closed for new comments and discussions now, but you can still log in and read everyone’s comments.

I mainly followed the discussions about the economy and there were a few threads that had a lot of replies. The entrepreneurship and SME thread started by Mr Cyril Ramaphosa was active with a range of different proposal about the role that SMEs can play in addressing the challenges of low economic growth rates and unemployment in South Africa. There were posts about the ease of doing business, access to finance, skills and training. I added that the discussion still needs some clarity about what is meant by small and medium firms. There is also a need for more analysis of the barriers that prevent firms from growing and employing more people. New evidence out of the US shows that SMEs are not the job creators that many people argue (Justin Wolfers tweets that he is still getting hate mail on his comments about this).

Other interesting threads included John Robbie’s proposal for an economic CODESA 3 and discussions on taxes, nationalisation and rural development. The wage subsidy thread started by Kuben Naidoo drew an interesting response from Neil Rankin. Neil wrote that they have a project at AMERU that follows 4,000 young people over 4 years as they attempt to find jobs.  Things that stand out include:

• there is a huge number of unemployed youth in SA and companies face large numbers of people wanting jobs,
• to hear about and get jobs requires some link into companies and thus many young people are marginalised because they do not have these links,
• the most trusted signal for the employer is previous work experience of the young person and a reference from a previous employer.

He concluded it is vitally important to get young people into jobs as early as possible, since this has a large impact on their lifetime work trajectory. Neil also argued that we need to think hard about what constrains companies from growing and particularly entering or expanding their sales in the international market where demand is much greater than in the local market.

Amongst the discussions about the labour market I also spotted contributions by two NWU-Pukke Economics students. Erich Wilgenbus (who wrote 19 comments!) discussed the importance of labour market flexibility and Tiaan de Kock linked onto Neil’s point about the importance of getting young people into jobs where they can get some work experience.

At the end of the day (RWC lingo is spilling over into my life as well) I enjoyed the Jam a lot and can see how it would be fun to be a full-time commentator, blogger, economist.